Recession officially started in December 2007, Dow drops 680 points

I remember having a conversation with a very conservative friend in December 2007; it could have been in January or February of 2008 as well. I declared then that the economy was very close to recession; all of the indicators showed it. The number of jobs being created was slowing, the housing bubble was on the verge of collapse and while the Dow was still very high, there were signs that it would begin to fall too...

My friend, a disciple of Sean Hannity, declared how wrong I was, how there was no recession in sight, that I was a liberal boogieman trying to bring socialism to the free market. He cited obscure stats on websites, and mentioned President George W. Bush and Sean Hannity as evidence.

I scoffed. I told him obviously his view had everything to do with right-wing politics, and mine had nothing to do with politics. I know little about the complexity of economic theory, but I know who are gutless ideologues, and who are smart people assessing a situation based on their intelligence, and at the time all the people who I believed were smart, were telling me that the economy was in trouble.

Flash-forward to today:

The difference, of course, is that the country entered a recession exactly one year ago, at least according to the Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is made up of seven prominent economists, most from the academic sector. The group made their official announcement on Monday that the economy entered a recession in December 2007.

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators,” the members said in a statement. “A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough.”

The committee noted that the contraction in the labor market began in the first month of 2008 and said that the declines in most major indicators, like personal income, manufacturing activity, retail sales, and industrial production, “met the standard for a recession.”

“Many of these indicators, including monthly data on the largest component of G.D.P., consumption, have declined sharply in recent months,” they wrote.

Well, let me say this now to George W., Sean Hannity and my friend: I fucking told you so. In my view, this is just another data point that partisan hacks are the worst way to run a government. I've made this argument before on this blog, so I will not bore you with more rants, but geez, how can one man, his administration and his cronies, be so hugely wrong about so many things?

Alan Colmes leaving "Hannity and Colmes"

It seems Sean Hannity is going to be flying solo from now on:

"Hannity & Colmes" at the end of the year. “I approached Bill Shine (FNC’s Senior Vice President of Programming) earlier this year about wanting to move on after 12 years to develop new and challenging ways to contribute to the growth of the network," Colmes said in a statement. "Although it’s bittersweet to leave one of the longest marriages on cable news, I’m proud that both Sean (Hannity) and I remained unharmed after sitting side by side, night after night for so many years.”

Is this really news, considering how little Alan Colmes contributes to the show? If a tree falls in the forest when no one is around, does it make a sound?

David Brook's "Darkness at Dusk"

Despite his conservative leanings, David Brooks is one of my favorite writers. He has a way of seeing what is happening on the national stage and elucidating it in clear, well-thought prose. Today he tackles the fight the Republican party is sure to have in the upcoming years, the fight between the Hannity's and Limbaugh's vs. the Frum's, Douhat's and Brook's of the world:

Traditionalists own the conservative mythology. Members of the conservative Old Guard see themselves as members of a small, heroic movement marching bravely from the Heartland into belly of the liberal elite. In this narrative, anybody who deviates toward the center, who departs from established doctrine, is a coward, and a sellout.

This narrative happens to be mostly bogus at this point. Most professional conservatives are lifelong Washingtonians who live comfortably as organization heads, lobbyists and publicists. Their supposed heroism consists of living inside the large conservative cocoon and telling each other things they already agree with. But this embattled-movement mythology provides a rationale for crushing dissent, purging deviationists and enforcing doctrinal purity. It has allowed the old leaders to define who is a true conservative and who is not. It has enabled them to maintain control of (an ever more rigid) movement.

In short, the Republican Party will probably veer right in the years ahead, and suffer more defeats. Then, finally, some new Reformist donors and organizers will emerge. They will build new institutions, new structures and new ideas, and the cycle of conservative ascendance will begin again.

This is seems to be a wise and probably predicative sentiment. The Republican party needs to remake its brand after George W. Bush to become a legitimate national party again. This will not happen if Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh are at the forefront; they have veered too far right and alienated almost every minority group in this country. The only way these types will start to lose their influence is if the G.O.P. begins to suffer crushing defeat after crushing defeat at the polls. If Obama does well in first term, I can see this happening. Only then will the G.O.P. return to the center and become exactly what America needs: an important voice of dissent against the ruling party.